The 2026 midterms were not a mystery. Democrats flipped the Senate and the House, took seats in Texas, Kansas, South Carolina, Iowa, and Ohio, and left Republicans with almost nothing to show for unified control of Washington. The war in Iran was the decisive factor. Exit polling and post-election analysis showed it ranked among the top reasons voters rejected Republican candidates. Fuel prices rose. The conflict dragged on for months after the initial February 28 strikes. Voters treated it as a choice made in their name and answered accordingly.
The Libertarian Line
A substantial share of the voters who elect actual limited-government Republicans—those aligned with the records of Donald Trump on domestic issues, Rand Paul, or Ted Cruz—hold to the non-aggression principle. They do not object to defense. They object to the initiation of force against another country when the immediate threat to American lives and territory is not clear and imminent. America’s founding practice was that the republic defended itself. It did not treat the security problems of other states as automatic American obligations. When the party in power launches strikes that escalate into an eight-month war, those voters do not merely disagree. Many of them stay home or vote against the Republican on the ballot.
That is not abstract theory. Read more
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